Changes to my Website

Overall Changes I Made to my Website

• Substantially improved my citations
  
• Added notes within my code to make it clearer
• Added code folding to all projects and overall cleaned up the presentation
• Edited introductions so they had a professional tone and appearance
• Adjusted home page to describe my current skills and career interests
• Added Resume

Creating a new Simulation

• Initially created a simulation about my odds to receive a single.
  • Insufficient information and an overload of variables hindered simulation value
  • Additionally overall lack of clarity throughout project
• Instead I chose to get a better understanding of the Pomona Baseball teams success

Pomona Pitzer Baseball sweeping ETBU to head to their first ever College World Series Appearance

Leading Question

• Is Pomona truly underperforming the year after a historic run?
  • 2022 historic run to regionals
  • 2023 poor season and missed SCIAC playoffs
  • 2024 greatest run in history to NCAA World Series in Cleveland
  • 2025 sentiments of a let down season (although ended up finishing strong)

Pomona Pitzer final game in Cleveland as they were eliminated by Endicott

Collecting the Data and Simulating the Season

• Utilized Massey Ratings to collect winning percentages https://masseyratings.com/cbase2024/ncaa-d3/ratings

# A tibble: 14 × 5
   team             win_prob games  wins losses
   <chr>               <dbl> <dbl> <int>  <dbl>
 1 CMS                  0.56     3     1      2
 2 La Verne             0.55     4     1      3
 3 ETBU                 0.53     3     1      2
 4 Occidental           0.85     3     2      1
 5 Cal Lu               0.6      3     2      1
 6 Cal Tech             0.95     3     2      1
 7 Whittier             0.84     4     2      2
 8 Lewis and Clark      0.71     3     2      1
 9 Pacific Lutheran     0.73     2     1      1
10 Chapman              0.6      3     1      2
11 Redlands             0.74     3     2      1
12 MIT                  0.8      2     1      1
13 UW La Crosse         0.54     1     1      0
14 Tufts                0.65     3     2      1

Results of 1,000 Simulations

• After mapping the simulation 1,000 times I found the following basic stats:

# A tibble: 1 × 5
  avg_wins sd_wins median_wins max_wins min_wins
     <dbl>   <dbl>       <dbl>    <int>    <int>
1     27.7    2.78          28       36       19

Graphical Presentation

• Created a shiny bar graph

https://nicols18.shinyapps.io/simulation/

Conclusions